How uncertain are precipitation and peak flow estimates for the July 2021 flooding event?

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract. The disastrous July 2021 flooding event made us question the ability of current hydrometeorological tools in providing timely and reliable flood forecasts for unprecedented events. This is an urgent concern since extreme events are increasing due to global warming, existing methods usually limited more frequently observed with usual generation processes. For event, we simulated hourly streamflows seven catchments located western Germany by combining partly polarimetric, radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) two hydrological models: a conceptual lumped model (GR4H) physically based, 3D distributed (ParFlowCLM). GR4H parameters were calibrated emphasis on high flows using historical discharge observations, whereas ParFlowCLM estimated based landscape soil properties. key results as follows. (1) With no correction vertical profiles radar variables, QPE products underestimated total depth relative rain gauges intense collision–coalescence processes near surface, i.e., below height levels monitored radars. (2) Correcting variables led substantial improvements. (3) probability exceeding highest measured peak flow before was highly impacted product, this impact depended catchment both models. (4) estimation had larger than choice but agreed those five catchments. study highlights need reflectivity other polarimetric surface improve QPEs It also underlines large uncertainty parameter estimation.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

سال: 2023

ISSN: ['1561-8633', '1684-9981']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-159-2023